Have you seen the movie 21? Where the mathematical genius and his maths teacher beat one casino after another. The idea of counting playing cards is far from new. Many gamblers are wondering: Is it realistic to calculate your winnings?
Let’s look at this difficult, but very interesting question! This article will show you not only the theoretical part of the aspect, but also reveal a real example of success.
How are mathematics and gambling related?
Mathematics is primarily seen well in card games such as baccarat or poker. With the help of mathematical calculations, a player can calculate and restructure his or her playing strategy. Many card games involve a number of arithmetical operations: counting points, adding and multiplying final scores and similar.
Finding the best option for a particular game will require knowledge of mathematics. It’s not just about calculating profits, it’s about distributing money profitably throughout the game to get the best payoffs. Customers who are familiar with probability theory will find it easier to see points in the course of the game that give them the opportunity to convert the situation into a winnings.
One of the basic concepts in gambling is the mathematical expectation. This indicator demonstrates what average amount a player is likely to win or lose, in case he performs a particular bet size.
It is possible to set this index for any bet size by multiplying the parameters of losses or wins by the level of probability of such events during mathematical operations.
Parameters of mathematical expectation level change when the size of payouts changes. An increase in the payout level of a game indicates a positive profit outlook. In case of different betting parameters, expectation level will also be different. In this case, under all circumstances, expectation parameters of a player correspond to a percentage of a certain sum of gambling bets. Levels of mathematical expectation for a long betting game are equal to the total value of expectation for each of the bets separately.
In the course of the game, you cannot predict the exact parameters of the outcome of a particular draw at online slots without GamStop. However, using precise calculations, you can determine the outcome of the day’s play or the overall outcome of the game with a certain probability.
Real success story
As interesting as the theoretical aspect is, practice is always more exciting. This seems to be what drove Edward Thorp to create his casino winning scheme. The scientist was always convinced that science should solve real problems. And one day he set out to develop a casino-winning algorithm. And you have to hand it to him, he succeeded!
Thorp even wrote a book, “Beat the Dealer”, which thrilled the whole world! In it, he talks about winning strategies for playing blackjack. He also invented a baccarat card-counting system. And together with his friend Claude Shannon, they developed a portable computer adapted to win at roulette.
The scientist was interested in winning at blackjack for a very long time. He was confused by the fact that even experienced players did not go into the mathematics of this card game.
Thorp was able to calculate all the winning combinations at MIT, where he was working at the time. The computers at his university helped him calculate more than a million card combinations, which changed the course of the game both in the player’s favour and in the dealer’s favour. In the course of his calculations, he managed to determine that more cards above nine (tens to aces) were better for the player. Thorp then determined that the best winning tactic is to count high value cards.
In order to determine which side has the advantage, the player has to keep an eye on the number of other cards in relation to the high cards. In numbers terms:
- A full deck has 52 cards, with 16 high cards and 36 other cards.
- The ratio of cards above nine to the others is calculated as follows: 36/12=2,25.
- So the winning position for the player is defined this way: if at the time of betting the ratio is less than 2.25 then it is positive for the player. Also, the lower the ratio, the better the player’s odds.
Thorpe has chosen to place his bets according to the Kelly criterion. It recommends making large bets when the player is in an advantageous position. If the dealer is in an advantageous position, it is advisable to make small bets.
Such a scheme makes it possible to win the bulk of large bets and stay in considerable profit, even if one loses most of the small bets.
Of course, the scientist did not stop there. He was interested in the scientific aspect of playing each of the gambling games. Continuing his research, he derived several more successful roulette and blackjack strategies. Following these games, Thorpe was able to develop a successful baccarat strategy. Along with this, he wrote two more books about winning strategies for the game. Once again, this shook the entire gambling world.
His fame was ahead of him. He was banned from playing in a number of casinos and there were direct threats to his life and those of his betting partners. So he changed his line of business, but he will always go down in history as a scientist who managed to develop winning strategies and tactics for casino card games!
